It's pretty much mathematically impossible for her to come out ahead, before superdelegates.
Same with the popular vote and the number of states won. Every measure of democratic support favors Obama, strongly. And if you think superdelegates are just dandy for democracy purposes (as Clinton supporters seem to now, clinging to their last hope), well, they've been breaking about 4 to 1 for Obama.
I'm not asking Clinton to drop out, either (I'd personally like her to, but many of those insisting on it reek of sexism), but it's not exactly hard to see why Obama is seen as nigh on inevitable. It's because he's winning. By a lot.
And... it's important to remember that the primary race doesn't exactly normally go on until the convention. And that's not because it becomes mathematically impossible for the runner-up to take the lead. It's because even though they could theoretically still win, the runners-up realize that the odds are stacked against them and bow out. This is for a variety of reasons, but a significant one is that it's understood that a protracted primary battle could damage the nominee's chances in the general by giving him less time to campaign against the Republican and by making some of the runner-up's supporters hate their Democratic opponent more than the Republican. This is the same thing. While obviously pretty much any media meme about Clinton will have significant sexist elements, the hope for her to drop out is not inherently sexist.
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branchandroot
no subject
Date: 2008-03-30 06:58 am (UTC)Same with the popular vote and the number of states won. Every measure of democratic support favors Obama, strongly. And if you think superdelegates are just dandy for democracy purposes (as Clinton supporters seem to now, clinging to their last hope), well, they've been breaking about 4 to 1 for Obama.
I'm not asking Clinton to drop out, either (I'd personally like her to, but many of those insisting on it reek of sexism), but it's not exactly hard to see why Obama is seen as nigh on inevitable. It's because he's winning. By a lot.
And... it's important to remember that the primary race doesn't exactly normally go on until the convention. And that's not because it becomes mathematically impossible for the runner-up to take the lead. It's because even though they could theoretically still win, the runners-up realize that the odds are stacked against them and bow out. This is for a variety of reasons, but a significant one is that it's understood that a protracted primary battle could damage the nominee's chances in the general by giving him less time to campaign against the Republican and by making some of the runner-up's supporters hate their Democratic opponent more than the Republican. This is the same thing. While obviously pretty much any media meme about Clinton will have significant sexist elements, the hope for her to drop out is not inherently sexist.